Waikato Projections Group

The Waikato Projections Group

The Waikato Projections Group consists of staff representatives from Hamilton City Council, all the district councils and Waikato Regional Council. It also includes representation from Waikato District Health Board and Waka Kotahi NZTA (Waikato Regional Transport Model).

The purpose of the Working Group is to plan and implement a process to provide a regionally consistent set of future population and economic projections for the Waikato based on the 2018 census so that they meet the needs of individual councils for their work in preparing their next LTP (2021-2031) and other planning/strategies (Urban Development NPS, Infrastructure Strategy), as well as sub/interregional spatial planning (Hamilton-Waikato Spatial Metro Plan/Future Proof, Hamilton to Auckland Corridor).

2018 Waikato Projections

Work on the 2018 Waikato Projections has recently been completed. This involved the update of the WISE model to provide for a 2018 start date. Updated model components include a new 2018 land use layer (including updated zoning, accessibility and facilities/services layers), a new population model, updated population data based on 2018 census, and updated economic data.

A process overview for the projection deliverables is available here.

Meeting and Workshop Reports

The following is a record of the minutes and materials presented at the Waikato Projection working group workshops.

Waikato Projections: Methods, Assumptions and Results - Seminar 19 April 2021

Introductions – Beat Huser, WRC
Overall process, and land use projections – Tony Fenton, Alchemists Ltd
Demographic projections – Michael Cameron, University of Waikato
Economic projections – Garry McDonald, Market Economics Ltd

View - Meeting notes and presentations

Combined Waikato Region Planning Forum - 26th February 2021

Key Points:

Waikato Projections/WISE Update: Beat Huser provided an overview on Waikato projections from 2018-2068 including the process involved, first results, the WISE model used to capture the data, and the use of the projections.
The projections include land use, population (by gender, age), household types, labour force, employment, and value added, at the regional, TA and SA2 (statistical area units of about 2,000-5,000 people) level. The aim is to have the projections delivered by 31 March 2021 for inclusion in the Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP), Future Proof and RPS review and other planning processes.
A project team is currently modelling the new projections based on the final 2018 census data, which were made available in September 2020. The website www.creatingfutures.org.nz contains the current projections and all relevant documentation.
Net migration is the key determinant for future populations, but there is a lot of uncertainty due to the Covid-19 situation, therefore, planning is based on various assumptions (low, medium, high).
The region shows overall growth by 2068, focussing on Hamilton, Waikato, Waipa areas, but some population growth is predicted in the smaller rural areas due to migration and a dispersion of people from the larger centres.
The projections are used to inform LTPs, RPS and Regional/District Plans, infrastructure and asset management plans, transport planning, non-statutory strategic planning, the proposed Strategic Planning Act, and can be used for community profiles.

View - Presentation to Combined Waikato Region Planning Forum

Older Minutes

Latest Update Report to Waikato Projections Group (29 October 2020).

Update Report to Waikato Projections Group (15 July 2020).

Update report to Future Proof (13 June 2018) and Regional Planning Managers (25 May 2018)

Waikato Projections Group

The Waikato Projections Group

2018 Waikato Projections

Meeting and Workshop Reports

31st July 2018

26th March 2018

22nd September 2017

29th March 2017

20th December 2016

10th November 2016

WISE

Reference Scenario

Waikato Projections

Case Studies

Resources

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