Creating Futures

Waipa Growth Strategy 2050

April 2017 - July 2017

Waipa District Council recently reviewed their District Growth Strategy. Given WISE was recently used to project future land use outcomes to support the development of census area unit level projections for demographic and economic growth indicators in the Waikato it was straight forward to create scenarios in WISE to represent the plausible outcomes of the draft Waipa District Growth Strategy 2050.

The key questions that were of interest to Waipa DC with respect to draft Growth Strategy were:

 

Scenario Outputs

The first scenario set up in WISE used the starting “Reference” and incorporated the proposed growth cells in the draft Growth Strategy into the model. This scenario was run to represent the Reference for this case study.

Under this scenario it was noticed that there was a lot more lifestyle (large lot) residential growth than there were zoned areas in the current District Plan and draft Growth Strategy (~800 ha occurs outside ‘preferred’ zoned areas).

Therefore a second scenario was developed which reduced the allocation of future population growth into lifestyle residential land use so that by 2050 only the zoned areas were occupied. The difference between these two scenarios for lifestyle residential growth can be seen in Table 1.

Table 1: Lifestyle land use allocation under Reference and Reduced Lifestyle scenarios

Hectares of Lifestyle - allocated by scenarios in Waipa District







Scenario   \      Year

2013

2020

2030

2040

2050

Reference

5027

5405

6003

6343

6431

Reduced Lifestyle  - medium

5027

5352

5653

5774

5810


This “Reduced Lifestyle” scenario was then run for both the medium and high population growth projections. The results were used to assess the spatial patterns and rates of residential development. The development rates for medium population projection for the Te Awamutu and Cambridge areas are shown in Figures 2 and 3 respectively.

 

Figure 2:  Rates of residential development for growth cells around Te Awamutu

 

Te Awamutu Residential growth

For the scenario using the Medium population growth projection the results show:

 

For the scenario using the High population growth projection the results show: