Creating Futures

Exploring Scenarios

WISE Reference Scenario

Using Scenarios in the Policy Process


The process of exploring scenarios should involve an interdiciplinary discussion about the key management or policy questions that need to be better understood.

The process of discussing the issues, potential management/policy options, understanding the key drivers in the system and then refining and quantifying the scenarios to be explored in WISE, is a key part of the knowldge gathering process to support decision making. The exploration of specific scenarios in WISE then provides the next level of knowledge development.

For more information on future thinking, scenario development and their use try visiting some of these links:


The WISE Reference scenario is the 'baseline' for future development as it represents current planning documents and growth projections. It can be altered to create a wide range of plausible future scenarios that can be explored through WISE.


 WISE Reference Scenario

The WISE Reference Scenario represents how the Region could develop based on the current planning and policy zones, and projected population and economic growth. It represents 'status quo' or baseline trend of growth and change. 

This can be readily altered to represent alternative future scenarios depending on the type of issues to be explored and stage of decision making in the policy process.

For information on the key assumptions used in the Reference scenario and a summuary of the outcomes for key indicators under the WISE V1.4 Reference Scenario see: Reference Scenario Outcomes


 Using Scenarios in the Policy Process

WISE aims to improve local government decision making through the use of supportive tools. Understanding the policy development processes that occur within local government organisations is an important step in identifying the key opportunities for tool use and for optimising their uptake. A report on policy processes and opportunities for the use of WISE and other project tools (Scenarios, Deliberation) has been prepared.

Generic Policy Planning Cylce (Resource Management Act 1991)

See Report>>