Creating Futures

Land Use Change

This case study depicts three alternative scenarios for future land use change in the Waikato region (to 2050):

  1. Dairy expansion: 4 per cent per annum increase in demand for dairying land, from 320,000 ha (2001) to 895,000 ha (2050)
  2. Dairy decline: initial increase in demand for dairying land to 2010 (max 370,000 ha), followed by gradual decline to 2050 (71,000 ha)
  3. Village life: 7-fold increase in demand for residential land from 5,000 ha (2001) to 37,000 (2050) with preference for living in smaller towns.

Note: simulations were run with an early WISE prototype using the land use change model only.

Source: Landcare Research NZ Ltd (2009)

Changes in land use in 2050 are shown below (baseline is 2007):

To watch animations of the land use changes of the three scenarios from the base year (2007) to 2050 download from the links below and then click on 'slide show' in Powerpoint: